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Earthquakes Prognosis Consultation Products The most recent forecast data are in the slid show below, starting with the second. If you comply with the conditions stated below, you may use the show and this website. Forecast data and information on this website, the forecast data and other information downloaded from this website, and the forecast data and information obtained from the software downloaded from this website, are intended only for the private use of visitors. TEC21 makes no warranties or affirmations that the forecasts will occur as suggested or implied by the reports, forecasts, graphical data or information on both this website and the downloaded materials comprising the results obtained by the downloaded software . When we complete this website in English, we will have Terms and Conditions for additional information/restrictions. Complex systems Forecasting as of July 10, 2007 (22:00) : Results August 25, 2007 Seismic activity as of October 19, 2005 A cross section of Seismic activity as of October 19, 2005 Seismogenic Cycles as of Oct 1, 2007 Seismogenic Cycles as of Sep 6, 2007 Seismogenic Cycles as of July 9, 2007 Seismogenic Cycles as of December 26, 2006 Seismogenic Cycles as of Sep 6, 2007 Seismogenic Cycles as of July 9, 2007 Seismogenic Cycles as of August 8, 2006 Seismogenic Cycles as of July 22, 2006 Seismogenic Cycles as of April 9, 2006 Seismogenic Cycles as of Dec 26, 2005 Seismogenic Cycles as of Dec 18, 2005 Seismogenic Cycles as of Dec 12, 2005 Seismogenic Cycles as of Dec 9, 2005 Seismogenic Cycles as of Nov 20, 2005 Seismogenic Cycles as of Nov 15, 2005 Seismogenic Cycles as of Oct 31, 2005 Seismogenic Cycles as of Oct 23, 2005 Seismogenic Cycles as of Oct 16, 2005 Seismogenic Cycles as of Oct 13, 2005 Forecasting as of July 22, 2006 (23:50) (8/23 comment) Forecasting as of March 2, 2006 (23:00) Date correction(Mar 7 and Mar 13 comment:Mar 31) Forecasting as of December 8, 2005 (18:00) (Dec 17 comment) Forecasting as of November 7, 2005 (18:00) We could offer diagnostic and prognostic tools and methods to monitor complex systems surrounding us. Each location of impending large EQs is expected to be at each center of red circles. The locations are estimated by finding their precursors on the time series data constructed from JMA catalogs. The forecasted dates are approximate and will be changed (delayed) by other large EQ events in the whole region (out of the blue line boundary). If the forecasted dates pass, the impending large EQs will rupture anytime soon. The date of any rupture is coupled with the precursor shown in the last slide of seismogenic cycles. The hypocenters of hindsight EQs are labeled as x with the black circles of past forecasting. As for the forecasting, the latitude and depth were wrong on the M6.7 deep EQ because of the known causes. The M6.8 EQ had the precusor in the Mid-Niigata area's time series , which was not analyzed at the time of forecasting. These EQ's rupture dates (somewhere in Japan) are accurately (within a day) forecasted by the seimogenic cycles in two large regions.. A total of about 22700 (M ≥ 4) have been observed since 1983/01/01. (About 18700 EQs are within the black-lined region.) They are extracted from JMA catalogs. The activity is intense along the boundaries of four tectonic plates known as, in counter-clockwise direction from the bottom, Philippine Sea, Pacific, North American and Eurasian plate. A large EQ will occur anywhere along the boundaries if one observes a precursor on the strain energy accumulated in the region as shown in seismogenic cycles. The longitudinal cross section of the previous slide is shown with the depth of hypocenters. The depth (km) is in logarithmic scale. The CI-100 and CI-30 are the time (in days) to have the consecutive 100 and 30 EQ events after an event. It can be assumed to be proportional to the stress or the strain energy accumulated in the whole region. This accumulated energy is released (lowered) by either a large EQ with its aftershocks or a large EQ swarm that is seen as longitudinally localized dots which are the longitudes (LON) of EQ hypocenters. The large EQs are shown by the green arrows whose height is indicative of their magnitude (MAG) if they are larger than 6. A new stress accumulation then starts and eventually reaches its peak as event m progresses. Thus CI-100 and -30 express oscillatory seismogenic cycles whose amplitude reaches its peak right before large EQ events. The peak becomes precursory to a large impending EQ which will often occur within a few days after reaching the peak. A necessary condition to have the M>=7 EQ is to have the two peaks of CI-30 and -100 at the same time. It appeared before the M7.6 Mariana Islands reg. The CI-100 and CI-30 are the time (in days) to have the consecutive 100 and 30 EQ events after an event. It can be assumed to be proportional to the stress or the strain energy accumulated in the whole region. This accumulated energy is released (lowered) by either a large EQ with its aftershocks or a large EQ swarm that is seen as longitudinally localized dots which are the longitudes (LON) of EQ hypocenters. The large EQs are shown by the green arrows whose height is indicative of their magnitude (MAG) if they are larger than 6. A new stress accumulation then starts and eventually reaches its peak as event m progresses. Thus CI-100 and -30 express oscillatory seismogenic cycles whose amplitude reaches its peak right before large EQ events. The peak becomes precursory to a large impending EQ which will often occur within a few days after reaching the peak. A necessary condition to have the M>=7 EQ is to have the two peaks of CI-30 and -100 at the same time. The CI-100 and CI-30 are the time (in days) to have the consecutive 100 and 30 EQ events after an event. It can be assumed to be proportional to the stress or the strain energy accumulated in the whole region. This accumulated energy is released (lowered) by either a large EQ with its aftershocks or a large EQ swarm that is seen as longitudinally localized dots which are the longitudes (LON) of EQ hypocenters. The large EQs are shown by the green arrows whose height is indicative of their magnitude (MAG) if they are larger than 6. A new stress accumulation then starts and eventually reaches its peak as event m progresses. Thus CI-100 and -30 express oscillatory seismogenic cycles whose amplitude reaches its peak right before large EQ events. The peak becomes precursory to a large impending EQ which will often occur within a few days after reaching the peak. A necessary condition to have the M>=7 EQ is to have the two peaks of CI-30 and -100 at the same time. The CI-100 and CI-30 are the time (in days) to have the consecutive 100 and 30 EQ events after an event. It can be assumed to be proportional to the stress or the strain energy accumulated in the whole region. This accumulated energy is released (lowered) by either a large EQ with its aftershocks or a large EQ swarm that is seen as longitudinally localized dots which are the longitudes (LON) of EQ hypocenters. The large EQs are shown by the green arrows whose height is indicative of their magnitude (MAG) if they are larger than 6. A new stress accumulation then starts and eventually reaches its peak as event m progresses. Thus CI-100 and -30 express oscillatory seismogenic cycles whose amplitude reaches its peak right before large EQ events. The peak becomes precursory to a large impending EQ which will often occur within a few days after reaching the peak. A necessary condition to have the M>=7 EQ is to have the two peaks of CI-30 and -100 at the same time. The condition met for the Taiwan M7.2 and M7.1. The CI-100 and CI-30 are the time (in days) to have the consecutive 100 and 30 EQ events after an event. It can be assumed to be proportional to the stress or the strain energy accumulated in the whole region. This accumulated energy is released (lowered) by either a large EQ with its aftershocks or a large EQ swarm that is seen as longitudinally localized dots which are the longitudes (LON) of EQ hypocenters. The large EQs are shown by the green arrows whose height is indicative of their magnitude (MAG) if they are larger than 6. A new stress accumulation then starts and eventually reaches its peak as event m progresses. Thus CI-100 and -30 express oscillatory seismogenic cycles whose amplitude reaches its peak right before large EQ events. The peak becomes precursory to a large impending EQ which will often occur within a few days after reaching the peak. A necessary condition to have the M>=7 EQ is to have the two peaks of CI-30 and -100 at the same time. The CI-100 and CI-30 are the time (in days) to have the consecutive 100 and 30 EQ events after an event. It can be assumed to be proportional to the stress or the strain energy accumulated in the whole region. This accumulated energy is released (lowered) by either a large EQ with its aftershocks or a large EQ swarm that is seen as longitudinally localized dots which are the longitudes (LON) of EQ hypocenters. The large EQs are shown by the green arrows whose height is indicative of their magnitude (MAG) if they are larger than 6. A new stress accumulation then starts and eventually reaches its peak as event m progresses. Thus CI-100 and -30 express oscillatory seismogenic cycles whose amplitude reaches its peak right before large EQ events. The peak becomes precursory to a large impending EQ which will often occur within a few days after reaching the peak. A necessary condition to have the M>=7 EQ is to have the two peaks of CI-30 and -100 at the same time. They appear to have the condition. The CI-100 and CI-30 are the time (in days) to have the consecutive 100 and 30 EQ events after an event. It can be assumed to be proportional to the stress or the strain energy accumulated in the whole region. This accumulated energy is released (lowered) by either a large EQ with its aftershocks or a large EQ swarm that is seen as longitudinally localized dots which are the longitudes (LON) of EQ hypocenters. The large EQs are shown by the green arrows whose height is indicative of their magnitude (MAG) if they are larger than 6. A new stress accumulation then starts and eventually reaches its peak as event m progresses. Thus CI-100 and -30 express oscillatory seismogenic cycles whose amplitude reaches its peak right before large EQ events. The peak becomes precursory to a large impending EQ which will often occur within a few days after reaching the peak. A necessary condition to have the M>=7 EQ is to have the two peaks of CI-30 and -100 at the same time. They are now well above their saturation. The CI-100 and CI-30 are the time (in days) to have the consecutive 100 and 30 EQ events after an EQ event. It can be assumed to be proportional to the stress or the strain energy accumulated in the whole region. This accumulated energy is released (lowered) by either a large EQ with its aftershocks or a large EQ swarm that is seen as longitudinally localized dots which are the longitudes (LON) of EQ hypocenters. The large EQs are shown by the green arrows whose height is indicative of their magnitude (MAG) if they are larger than 6. A new stress accumulation then starts and eventually reaches its peak as event m progresses. Thus CI-100 and -30 express oscillatory seismogenic cycles whose amplitude reaches its peak right before large EQ events. The peak becomes precursory to a large impending EQ which will often occur within a few days after reaching the peak. A necessary condition to have the M>=7 EQ is to have the two peaks of CI-30 and -100 at the same time. They are accumulationg the energy. The CI-100 and CI-30 are the time (in days) to have the consecutive 100 and 30 EQ events after an EQ event. It can be assumed to be proportional to the stress or the strain energy accumulated in the whole region. This accumulated energy is released (lowered) by either a large EQ with its aftershocks or a large EQ swarm that is seen as longitudinally localized dots which are the longitudes (LON) of EQ hypocenters. The large EQs are shown by the green arrows whose height is indicative of their magnitude (MAG) if they are larger than 6. A new stress accumulation then starts and eventually reaches its peak as event m progresses. Thus CI-100 and -30 express oscillatory seismogenic cycles whose amplitude reaches its peak right before large EQ events. The peak becomes precursory to a large impending EQ which will often occur within a few days after reaching the peak. A necessary condition to have the M>=7 EQ is to have the two peaks of CI-30 and -100 at the same time. They are ready to release the energy. The CI-100 and CI-30 are the time (in days) to have the consecutive 100 and 30 EQ events after an EQ event. It can be assumed to be proportional to the stress or the strain energy accumulated in the whole region. This accumulated energy is released (lowered) by either a large EQ with its aftershocks or a large EQ swarm that is seen as longitudinally localized dots which are the longitudes (LON) of EQ hypocenters. The large EQs are shown by the green arrows whose height is indicative of their magnitude (MAG) if they are larger than 6. A new stress accumulation then starts and eventually reaches its peak as event m progresses. Thus CI-100 and -30 express oscillatory seismogenic cycles whose amplitude reaches its peak right before large EQ events. The peak becomes precursory to a large impending EQ which will often occur within a few days after reaching the peak. A necessary condition to have the M>=7 EQ is to have the two peaks at CI-30 and -100 at the same time. The cycle is ready to release the strain energy. The CI-100 and CI-30 are the time (in days) to have the consecutive 100 and 30 EQ events after an EQ event. It can be assumed to be proportional to the stress or the strain energy accumulated in the whole region. This accumulated energy is released (lowered) by either a large EQ with its aftershocks or a large EQ swarm that is seen as longitudinally localized dots which are the longitudes (LON) of EQ hypocenters. The large EQs are shown by the green arrows whose height is indicative of their magnitude (MAG) if they are larger than 6. A new stress accumulation then starts and eventually reaches its peak as event m progresses. Thus CI-100 and -30 express oscillatory seismogenic cycles whose amplitude reaches its peak right before large EQ events. The peak becomes precursory to a large impending EQ which will often occur within a few days after reaching the peak. A necessary condition to have the M>=7 EQ is to have the two peaks at CI-30 and -100 at the same time. The cycle is accumulating some strain energy. The CI-100 and CI-30 are the time (in days) to have the consecutive 100 and 30 EQ events after an EQ event. It can be assumed to be proportional to the stress or the strain energy accumulated in the whole region. This accumulated energy is released (lowered) by either a large EQ with its aftershocks or a large EQ swarm that is seen as longitudinally localized dots which are the longitudes (LON) of EQ hypocenters. The large EQs are shown by the green arrows whose height is indicative of their magnitude (MAG) if they are larger than 6. A new stress accumulation then starts and eventually reaches its peak as event m progresses. Thus CI-100 and -30 express oscillatory seismogenic cycles whose amplitude reaches its peak right before large EQ events. The peak becomes precursory to a large impending EQ which will often occur within a few days after reaching the peak. A necessary condition to have the M>=7 EQ is to have the two peaks at CI-30 and -100 at the same time. The cycle starts accumulating some energy. The CI-100 and CI-30 are the time (in days) to have the consecutive 100 and 30 EQ events after an EQ event. It can be assumed to be proportional to the stress or the strain energy accumulated in the whole region. This accumulated energy is released (lowered) by either a large EQ with its aftershocks or a large EQ swarm that is seen as longitudinally localized dots which are the longitudes (LON) of EQ hypocenters. The large EQs are shown by the green arrows whose height is indicative of their magnitude (MAG) if they are larger than 6. A new stress accumulation then starts and eventually reaches its peak as event m progresses. Thus CI-100 and -30 express oscillatory seismogenic cycles whose amplitude reaches its peak right before large EQ events. The peak becomes precursory to a large impending EQ which will often occur within a few days after reaching the peak. A necessary condition to have the M>=7 EQ is to have the two peaks at CI-30 and -100 at the same time. The cycle starts accumulating some energy. The CI-100 and CI-30 are the time (in days) to have the consecutive 100 and 30 EQ events after an EQ event. It can be assumed to be proportional to the stress or the strain energy accumulated in the whole region. This accumulated energy is released (lowered) by either a large EQ with its aftershocks or a large EQ swarm that is seen as longitudinally localized dots which are the longitudes (LON) of EQ hypocenters. The large EQs are shown by the green arrows whose height is indicative of their magnitude (MAG) if they are larger than 6. A new stress accumulation then starts and eventually reaches its peak as event m progresses. Thus CI-100 and -30 express oscillatory seismogenic cycles whose amplitude reaches its peak right before large EQ events. The peak becomes precursory to a large impending EQ which will often occur within a few days after reaching the peak. A necessary condition to have the M>=7 EQ is to have the two peaks at CI-30 and -100 at the same time. The cycle starts accumulating some energy. The CI-100 and CI-30 are the time (in days) to have the consecutive 100 and 30 EQ events after an EQ event. It can be assumed to be proportional to the stress or the strain energy accumulated in the whole region. This accumulated energy is released (lowered) by either a large EQ with its aftershocks or a large EQ swarm that is seen as longitudinally localized dots which are the longitudes (LON) of EQ hypocenters. The large EQs are shown by the green arrows whose height is indicative of their magnitude (MAG) if they are larger than 6. A new stress accumulation then starts and eventually reaches its peak as event m progresses. Thus CI-100 and -30 express oscillatory seismogenic cycles whose amplitude reaches its peak right before large EQ events. The peak becomes precursory to a large impending EQ which will often occur within a few days after reaching the peak. A necessary condition to have the M>=7 EQ is to have the two peaks at CI-30 and -100 at the same time. The M7.1 has released some energy. The CI-100 and CI-30 are the time (in days) to have the consecutive 100 and 30 EQ events after an EQ event. It can be assumed to be proportional to the stress or the strain energy accumulated in the whole region. This accumulated energy is released (lowered) by either a large EQ with its aftershocks or a large EQ swarm that is seen as longitudinally localized dots which are the longitudes (LON) of EQ hypocenters. The large EQs are shown by the green arrows whose height is indicative of their magnitude (MAG) if they are larger than 6. A new stress accumulation then starts and eventually reaches its peak as event m progresses. Thus CI-100 and -30 express oscillatory seismogenic cycles whose amplitude reaches its peak right before large EQ events. The peak becomes precursory to a large impending EQ which will often occur within a few days after reaching the peak. A necessary condition to have the M>=7 EQ is to have the two peaks at CI-30 and -100 at the same time. The accumulation of strain energy continues. The CI-100 and CI-30 are the time (in days) to have the consecutive 100 and 30 EQ events after an EQ event. It can be assumed to be proportional to the stress or the strain energy accumulated in the whole region. This accumulated energy is released (lowered) by either a large EQ with its aftershocks or a large EQ swarm that is seen as longitudinally localized dots which are the longitudes (LON) of EQ hypocenters. The large EQs are shown by the green arrows whose height is indicative of their magnitude (MAG) if they are larger than 6. A new stress accumulation then starts and eventually reaches its peak as event m progresses. Thus CI-100 and -30 express oscillatory seismogenic cycles whose amplitude reaches its peak right before large EQ events. The peak becomes precursory to a large impending EQ which will often occur within a few days after reaching the peak. A necessary condition to have the M>=7 EQ is to have the two peaks at CI-30 and -100 at the same time. The accumulation of strain energy continues. The CI-100 and CI-30 are the time (in days) to have the consecutive 100 and 30 EQ events after an EQ event. It can be assumed to be proportional to the stress or the strain energy accumulated in the whole region. This accumulated energy is released (lowered) by either a large EQ with its aftershocks or a large EQ swarm that is seen as longitudinally localized dots which are the longitudes (LON) of EQ hypocenters. The large EQs are shown by the green arrows whose height is indicative of their magnitude (MAG) if they are larger than 6. A new stress accumulation then starts and eventually reaches its peak as event m progresses. Thus CI-100 and -30 express oscillatory seismogenic cycles whose amplitude reaches its peak right before large EQ events. The peak becomes precursory to a large impending EQ which will often occur within a few days after reaching the peak. A necessary condition to have the M>=7 EQ is to have the two peaks at CI-30 and -100 at the same time. The accumulation of strain energy continues. The CI-100 and CI-30 are the time (in days) to have the consecutive 100 and 30 EQ events after an EQ event. It can be assumed to be proportional to the stress or the strain energy accumulated in the whole region. This accumulated energy is released (lowered) by either a large EQ with its aftershocks or a large EQ swarm that is seen as longitudinally localized dots which are the longitudes (LON) of EQ hypocenters. The large EQs are shown by the green arrows whose height is indicative of their magnitude (MAG) if they are larger than 6. A new stress accumulation then starts and eventually reaches its peak as event m progresses. Thus CI-100 and -30 express oscillatory seismogenic cycles whose amplitude reaches its peak right before large EQ events. The peak becomes precursory to a large impending EQ which will often occur within a few days after reaching the peak. A necessary condition to have the M>=7 EQ is to have the two peaks at CI-30 and -100 at the same time. The accumulation of strain energy has started. Each location of impending large EQs is expected to be at each center of red circles. The locations are estimated by finding their precursors on the time series data constructed from JMA catalogs. The forecasted dates are approximate and will be changed (delayed) by other large EQ events in the whole region (out of the blue line boundary). If the forecasted dates pass, the impending large EQs will rupture anytime soon. The date of any rupture is coupled with the precursor shown in the last slide of seismogenic cycles. The hypocenters of hindsight EQs are labeled as x with the black circles of past forecasting. The Dec 17 off Boso peninsula precursor was for the Dec 17 off east coast Honshu M6.1. Forecasting of LAT was in error. The old forecasting data is placed at the end of seismogenic cycles. 8/23 comment: The forecasted M6.5 on 8/19 appears M5 on 8/20 in the same area; however, a new precusor has appeared. The new forecasting is yet to be renewed. Each location of impending large EQs is expected to be at each center of red circles. The locations are estimated by finding their precursors on the time series data constructed from JMA catalogs. The forecasted dates are approximate and will be changed (delayed) by other large EQ events in the whole region (out of the blue line boundary). If the forecasted dates pass, the impending large EQs will rupture anytime soon. The date of any rupture is coupled with the precursor shown in the last slide of seismogenic cycles. The hypocenters of hindsight EQs are labeled as x with the black circles of past forecasting. Two precursors, near the Hiroshima area and Kii peninsula, need serious attention. Forecasting Date corrections: 2006/03/17>2006/03/17-27; 2006/04/06>2006/04/01 Comment: 03/27 Hyuuga M5.6 is not the forecasted M7. The Dec 17 off Boso peninsula precursor was for the Dec 17 off east coast Honshu M6.1. Forecasting of LAT was in error. The old forecasting data is placed at the end of seismogenic cycles. Each location of impending large EQs is expected to be at each center of red circles. The locations are estimated by finding their precursors on the time series data constructed from JMA catalogs. The forecasted dates are approximate and will be changed (delayed) by other large EQ events in the whole region (out of the blue line boundary). If the forecasted dates pass, the impending large EQs will rupture anytime soon. The date of any rupture is coupled with the precursor shown in the last slide of seismogenic cycles. The hypocenters of hindsight EQs are labeled as x with the black circles of past forecasting. Two precursors, near the Hiroshima area and off Kii peninsula, need serious attention. December 17 comment: The Dec 17 off Boso peninsula precursor appears to be for the Dec 17 off east coast Honshu M6.1. The old forecasting data is placed at the end of seismogenic cycles. Each location of impending large EQs is expected to be at each center of red circles. The locations are estimated by finding their precursors on the time series data constructed from JMA catalogs. The forecasted dates are approximate and will be changed (delayed) by other large EQ events in the whole region (out of the blue line boundary). If the forecasted dates pass, the impending large EQs will rupture anytime soon. The date of any rupture is coupled with the precursor shown in the last slide of seismogenic cycles. The hypocenters of hindsight EQs are labeled as x with the black circles of past forecasting. 1) The M6.7 precursor in the Kanto area (Tokyo) was to the Tohoku M 7.2 EQ. Its pediction on the hypocenter was wrong. 2) The precursor off Kii peninsula needs serious attention.
Complex systems We could offer diagnostic and prognostic tools and methods to monitor complex systems surrounding us.
Forecasting the large earthquakes has been made by a method described in the following paper. Takeda, F and Takeo, M, An earthquake prediction system using the time series analyses of earthquake property and crust motion, AIP conference proceedings 742, pp 140-151, 2004 The revision with an Appendix added in August, 2004, may be requested by email. The size of the paper, whose figures are all in color, is approximately 4.3 M in pdf. |
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